Buckeye RINO

In my prior post, I stated that Bob Barr is right.  John McCain and Barack Obama should not appear on the Texas ballot because, according to Texas law, McCain and Obama did not meet the deadline to have their names appear on the ballot.

So I’ve been trying to figure out if it’s possible for John McCain to win without Texas.  I went to the web site for Real Clear Politics, where they have an interactive map so that you can play around with various scenarios.  Just click on a state, and the interactive map will allow you to designate it as McCain, Obama, or toss-up.

Since Bob Barr is not an option, I changed Texas to toss-up, and left it that way.  I assumed Obama had locked up California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and the District of Columbia.  I also assumed McCain had locked up Alaska, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, Kansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina (that might be a tall order to even assume that McCain has grabbed onto Missouri and North Carolina).  So the battleground states that I was experimenting with were New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

If 34 electoral votes from Texas go to Bob Barr, it’s possible that no one would claim a majority of the Electoral College.  If that were to happen, it’s almost certain that Barack Obama would be the next president, because the U.S. House of Representatives votes to choose the president when the Electoral College fails to reach a majority decision.

The number of electoral votes needed to capture a majority of the Electoral College is 270.  McCain needs at least 270.  If McCain ends up with 269 or less, Obama wins.

Playing around with the map, I discovered that it is possible for McCain to win without Texas, but it’s a tall order.  How tall?  McCain would need some big states in his corner, like Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, plus at least three, perhaps more, smaller states (McCain would need to cobble together at least 30 more electoral votes from the combination of smaller states with those big four in his pocket).  That’s already a tall order to sweep Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, let alone win the other battlegrounds.

If McCain could pick up Florida plus all the Great Lakes states except for Illinois and New York, he could do it.  That means McCain would have to grab Indiana, Wisconsin, and Minnesota in addition to the big four.  If he lost either Minnesota or Wisconsin, he could still win if he managed to pick up Colorado.  If he lost both Minnesota and Wisconsin, he’d have to get Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico all in his corner.  If he lost the smallest of the big ones, Michigan, he’d have to nab Virginia and New Hampshire to replace it.  If he lost Indiana, he’d have to pick up Virginia.  Many envision Obama winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, though.  McCain would have to have Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado in order to counter that.  But if Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are all comfortably in the Obama camp, then New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado are probably also in the Obama column.  Ouch.

You get the picture.  A McCain win without Texas will require some surprises in a few states.  It’s not impossible, but it is daunting.

Go ahead.  Play with the interactive map at Real clear Politics.  You know you want to.

Bob Barr is right.  John McCain and Barack Obama should not be on the ballot in Texas.

The state of Texas has already printed absentee ballots with the names of McCain and Obama on them, even though they failed to meet deadlines imposed by Texas law.

The fact that the ballots already have the names of McCain and Obama on them demonstrates how this will likely turn out in the end:  Barr’s principled stand will be defied by the powers that be in Texas.

Even though I favor McCain, and even though I don’t know how McCain reaches the minimum threshold of 270 electoral votes to become the next president without the 34 electoral votes of Texas (listed as safely in McCain’s camp anywhere you look from any polling source or news organization), I admit that it would be wrong to include the names of McCain and Obama on the Texas ballot.

If I were a Texas voter, I’d be angry at any state legislator that didn’t attempt to remedy the problem in advance.  Texas legislators know (or ought to know) what the election laws are, including the deadlines for getting on the ballot.  They also knew well in advance when the conventions were going to be held.  They had ample opportunity to act in order to accommodate the schedule of the two major parties.  But they did not.

If I were the judge hearing Bob Barr’s case, I’d strike the names of McCain and Obama from the ballot, and not feel sorry for the state legislators that had to put up with the earful that angry voters will be sure to give them.

34 electoral votes for Bob Barr.

But I think we’ll find that judges aren’t immune to politics, and will rule against Barr, which will make me very unhappy with the judges.

But Barr is right.

From the Norwalk Reflector: “Norwalk Furniture is history.”

I’m more concerned about firms like Norwalk Furniture going belly up than I am about Wall Street firms going belly up.  Can you guess why?

A lot is not yet known about this, and I just heard the news headline myself, but if it’s true, I don’t want any more to do with the Democrat party and it’s Big Brother vision of America.

Though I am Republican, I have often engaged in split-ticket voting.

If Palin’s personal e-mail has been hacked, that, to me, is akin to Watergate.

What happens when one challenges the status quo?  What happens when one upsets the apple cart?  What happens when one deals a blow to the good old boys and politics as usual?

The politicians get angry.  They have an axe to grind.  They scheme of ways to get even, bring down the crusader, and reinstate the status quo.

The public, though, is pleased.

The job approval ratings of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin hover in the vicinity of 80%, and it’s been that way for two years.  They respect that she ousted the head of Alaska’s Republican Party who used his time on the job as an oil commissioner to run the state GOP.  They respect that she divested herself of some of the perks that the prior good-old-boy governor had accumulated.  They respect that a natural gas pipeline project that had sat idle for 30 years is now on the front burner.  They respect that the Alaskan government is more transparent, including putting the state checkbook online.  Transparency has heightened the need to be more prudent with expenses, so Sarah Palin has vetoed $500 million of wasteful spending, and she has dramatically chopped the number and amount of Federal earmarks that Alaska is seeking.

Those spending cuts anger state legislators.  The legislature approves the spending just to have Palin veto it.  Every earmark that Palin rejects creates more enemies, and those enemies are powerful special interests, or at least, special interests who used to enjoy power and who would like to reassert their power vis-a-vis the current Alaskan governor.

The Alaskan public remains delighted with the strides that Palin has made, and wishes other politicians had acted in much the same way a long time ago.

Meanwhile, the conniving politicians who want revenge hope that they have found a turning point that will allow them to stop the roll-back of their political power in its tracks in the person of Walter Monegan, a former administrator responsible for Alaska’s safety forces.  Walter Monegan was offered a choice of assuming another position within the administration or being terminated.  He chose termination, and then made an issue of it, alleging that Palin was misusing her power.  When that allegation was made, the heads of the spurned politicians turned.  Instead of allowing Palin to continue on the path of shaking up Juneau, they could charge her with misusing power.  Perhaps this was the first way to check Palin’s immense popularity, if they could redefine her as a powermonger rather than reformer.  The state legislature decided to launch an investigation.  Clearly, they have a motive for finding fault with Palin.

Meanwhile, the public, I’m sure, is laughing off the redefinition of Palin as a powermonger instead of reformer.  Their former governors were powermongers.  Their former governors made no attempts at reform.  The public was able to tell the difference between Palin and her predecessors.  After the “trooper-gate scandal” first went public, Palin’s approval ratings dropped to . . . 76%!!!!  How many governors in America enjoy approval ratings of 76%?

Did Palin abuse her power by dismissing Monegan?  Was the termination the result of Palin’s frustration that she couldn’t get Monegan to fire her ex-brother-in-law?  I think not, and here’s why:  1) Monegan says that he wasn’t asked to fire anybody, that he’s just trying to read between the lines.  2) Monegan was offered another position within the administration. 3) Most importantly, Monegan’s replacement has not fired the ex-brother-in-law.  If it was all about getting the ex-brother-in-law fired, wouldn’t dismissing Monegan be all about putting someone else in that position to take care of that one little detail?  If the ex-brother-in-law was fired after getting Monegan out of the way, then one might conclude that it was indeed personal.

Now that Palin has become the VP nominee, the MSM has piled on, and the “trooper-gate” is becoming larger than life.  Politicians with an axe to grind now have the MSM and the Obama campaign in their corner.  The McCain camp stated today that the fix is in, and that the state legislature’s investigation has become a political machine determined to make a ruling against Palin.  I think the only reason the vengeful state legislature hasn’t already ruled against Palin is that they are timing the announcement according to the needs of the Obama campaign in order to inflict maximum damage on Palin, weakening her as much as they can in order to begin their push to reinstate politics-as-usual.

If American voters, though, follow the lead of the Alaskan public instead of jilted Alaskan politicians, they’ll recognize this episode as the bogus witch-hunt that it is and see that Palin truly does stand on the side of the people, which is why the Alaskan people stand on the side of Palin.

Two VP candidates hit the campaign trail this morning.  Sarah Palin was in Golden, Colorado, speaking of the things that she and John McCain would do if elected to the White House.  The message of reform was one that provides hope.  Joe Biden was in Saint Clair Shores, Michigan, speaking of pocketbook fears, predicting what John McCain would not do.  After listening for 15 minutes of attack after attack on John McCain, I realized that Biden had not even mentioned Senator Obama, let alone what Senator Obama plans to do about Wall Street jitters.  One campaign has a message of what they’ll do, and one campaign has no message, maybe not even a clue, about what they’ll do.  Isn’t this a huge flip-flop for the Obama campaign, to run on the message of fear and not hope?  Isn’t this a huge flip-flop for the Obama campaign to run on the old-style politics instead of a new kind of politics?

I have a recommendation for every household this weekend: stockpile food and other household goods–perhaps 3 months worth.  The financial house of cards on Wall Street is ready to collapse.  It might happen next week, it might happen next month, it might happen next year, but our nation’s financial foundations are not on good footing.

In a prior post, I urged the Federal government to not bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  It looks like the fix is in and they will be bailed out.  Lehman Brothers is apparently pleading for federal guarantees so that someone will acquire it.  A decision is expected by Sunday.  Other financial institutions are at risk, as are other industries.  Whether the Federal government bails everybody out or not, there is a risk that our currency could take a big hit, and if that happens, expect an inflation spike.  If inflation spikes, expect that the stuff on store shelves will be really expensive.  If you can manage it, I think it’s good to keep a stockpile on hand to keep your family afloat no matter what happens to the financial markets.

With a short-term inflation spike, some prices won’t be able to move much, such as rent (already stipulated in a lease agreement), mortgage (a contract already agreed to when you purchased your home), and utilities (utility companies would have to get the state of Ohio to agree to a tax hike before they could raise their rates).  Prices of anything not already locked in, though, could skyrocket.

Of course, we are already experiencing financial distress in Ohio, but, believe it or not, it really can get worse.  Among those who think it could get worse is Governor Ted Strickland, who is trimming the state budget to anticipate impending shortfalls rather than tap the state’s “rainy day” fund. (Hat tip to Lisa Renee at Glass City Jungle.)

On the lighter side, maybe another step one can take to prepare one’s family for a nationwide financial collapse is to obtain fishing licenses and hunting licenses, so if food temporarily becomes too expensive, we can gather it ourselves, just like Sarah Palin’s family fishes and hunts for food.  It’s too late to plant a vegetable garden now, but you might want to plan on planting one next year.

Speaking of hunting, the deer population in Ohio is many, many, many times larger today than it ever was at the time the state was first settled.  According to early accounts of Ohio at the time of settlement, Ohio was wall-to-wall carpeted in trees with very few clearings.  The forest canopy shut out sunlight necessary for thick forest undergrowth, so deer didn’t have a lot to feast on in Ohio.  The Native American populations were also small in Ohio, as hunting was not as successful here as elsewhere because of the relative lack of game.  Often, the Miami nation, that inhabited SW Ohio, would make major hunting treks into Indiana and Kentucky, where game was much more plentiful.  These days, there’s lots for deer to forage upon in Ohio, and the large size of the deer population reflects that fact.

In any event, I encourage families to have a meeting to launch an action plan to be prepared in case of severe economic shocks.